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Today, we read that China's trade with the outside world for the first time since 2004 show a deficit in the first quarter. The main reason for the trend is strong domestic demand in China and higher commodity prices. In March, China's imports (in dollars), the largest ever for a single month, american customs while exports were the third largest ever for a single month (just in November and December 2010 was higher). The final figure for March was thus almost balance between imports and exports for the first quarter of 2011 as stated in a deficit of $ 1 billion, compared with a surplus american customs of $ 14 billion a year earlier. For the full year 2011 anticipates economist Shen Jianguang at Mizuho that China's trade surplus falls to below $ 150 billion, against american customs 183 billion in 2010, 196 billion in 2009 and the record 295 billion for 2008. A clear downward trend for several years, that is. Higher commodity prices american customs are a factor, but the more interesting factor for China Scout is the strong domestic demand, which in turn is supported by the higher wages. Increased wages means at the other end increasing labor costs. The question now is how long the record rapid Chinese growth can continue, especially what happens when growth begins to slow down. The Chinese have in recent years become accustomed to, on average, have far better off very quickly. How will they react when growth will no longer be just as fast? China is well known for many years been the "world factory" and thanks to cheap labor made all sorts of cheap goods which are then exported to America american customs and Europe. As for the Chinese workforce competitive at international level, one can now wonder how it will go. Kelvin Chan at the Associated Press wrote an article about this last week. After the leave around the Chinese american customs New Year in February, it's always many migrant american customs workers who do not return to their jobs in southern China - usually 10-15 percent. This year, however, it was more than usual - the 30-40 percent did not return, although authorities in Guangdong raised the minimum wage by up to 20 percent in March. Workers want despite american customs no longer take these monotonous and relatively low-paying job, because there is now, thanks to growth in the economy improved american customs livelihoods in other parts of the country. Companies must now compete american customs for fewer workers, something that for China as a whole is also exacerbated by the one child policy effects. american customs There will now be a lot of pressure on all Chinese export enterprises face higher labor costs and raw material prices. Several companies are moving their manufacturing from the coast to the interior, or to cheaper countries in South Asia. China analyst at Credit Suisse calls it a "historic turning point" for China's economy. american customs Perhaps it will also be a turning point for the world economy as China's low-cost production can no longer keep price inflation low. Speaking of expensive countries in South Asia, I read that Vietnam will raise the minimum wage by 14 percent, which they fear will add to the already high inflation rate of almost 14 percent per year.
Will China's bubble to blow out now? Luckily we have a strong tiger economy, he he! Have to thank you for all the work you put into writing your blog, you o cornu is easily the best of all the bloggers I follow, I am eternally grateful I found you. Keep up the good work. :) ReplyDelete
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